eur/usd fundatemnally uptrend ,market moved with ECB

SUMMARY:

Range trading within 65 pips awaiting tomorrow's rate decision from ECB
COTS suggest 'sentiment extreme', leaving potential for retracement against the sell down

I expect ECB to fall short of aggressive action tomorrow, resulting in buy run to 1.370-73 level
all in all picture remains sell and favour further downside to 1.3500 level following the retracement to 1.370-73 level

Since the sell Outside day beneath 1.3900 level the Euro has continued to unwind, amid its most bearish decline since Nov '13. However you can also see that bearish momentum is waning and last week produced a Rikshaw Man Doji to suggest pending strength  as the markets await the ECB Rate decision tomorrow.
Non-Comms have been Net short Euro for 2x consecutive weeks as they load up on their short, anticipating aggressive ECB action tomorrow. This should come as no surprise as you can clearly see this on the price charts anyway. However something interesting to note is that the ratio of Short Non-Comms vs long commercials is at a 'sentiment extreme' using a 26-week setting. This puts Non-Comms at the 0 Percentile and Commercials (Hedgers) at the 100th percentile of the past 26 weeks to suggest too many traders are on the same side of the market. I have included previous examples of sentiment extremes which come in roughly around price cycle troughs. Of course with COTS data being weekly (and lagging 3 days) it is only a rough guide and not a buy signal within itself, but certainly something taking note of.
Price remains sandwiched between technical levels awaiting tomorrow's ECB plans. Support comprises of 1.3585 level lows and Weekly S1 support whilst resistance includes the 200 day sMA, 1.3650 level weekly highs and currently the day's trading remains capped by the Weekly Pivot at 1.3620 level. I doubt this trading range will be tested before tomorrow and that the majority of big players would have already placed their bets on tomorrow's outcome.

I expected that. if history has anything to go by, ECB will not fully deliver the aggressive action the market has already priced in, resulting in bears with sore heads and subsequent short-covering to see price rally u to 1.370 (initially).